Arizona’s financial system recovers from pandemic, but uncertainty looms nonetheless as COVID-19 Circumstances are increasing and federal aid programs are on the verge of being phased out, one of the state’s top economists said last week.
For now, Arizona is seeing positive indicators with continued development of residents, workers returning to work and rising retail spending, said Lee McPheters, director of JPMorgan. chase away Financial Outlook Heart at Arizona State College (ASU), who spoke at the 57th Annual ASU / PNC Bank Financial Forecast Luncheon last week.
The full restoration is expected to take place within the next 12 months, but it should require additional federal push to help those still affected by the pandemic, said McPheters, editor of the Western Blue Chip Financial Forecast publications who also oversees the Job website. Progress USA which tracks employment. in states and metropolitan areas.
Here are the important takeaways from lunch:
Prior to the Covid coup, Arizona ranked second in the country for job creation. The state has now reclaimed 66 percent of the roles lost in the pandemic this year and is on watch to add about 40,000 more – as long as there is an effective vaccine and additional federal stimulus.
“This will have the effect of propelling job growth in Arizona up to about 4%,” McPheters said.
Arizona is currently experiencing some of the highest job development rates in the country in 4 industries: transportation and warehousing; Wholesale; qualified, scientific and technical; and retail. Over the next 12 months, the state is expected to see employment return to full strength in 2021 as it provides 115,000 new jobs.
Inhabitants, accommodation, expenses
Different positive indicators for the restaurant business are the number of people persisting in going to Arizona, which is fueling the strong real estate market. Projections are for another 100,000 residents to be reached in 2021.
Buyer spending has now returned to January ranges. Retail spending is up by more than 17 pc
Disproportionate adverse effect on low wages, service industries
Those who still need help are small businesses and low-paid workers.
While excessive and middle-wage jobs are back to January levels, low-wage jobs are down 20 pc
One in four small businesses in Arizona are now closed due to the pandemic. Expenditure on catering is down by 26 pc The leisure and air transport sectors remain depressed.
And of the state’s 285,000 unemployed, they come mainly from low-wage industries, making catering much more difficult for these displaced workers.
Federal aid will run out on Boxing Day
Federal aid programs that have helped thousands of Arizona residents and small businesses are expected to run out on Dec. 26.
“There is a serious problem as these political agendas come to an end,” McPheters said. “Consumers have saved quite a bit of money in 2020, but those savings are depleted and food insecurity is becoming a problem.”
The United States will see a “very gradual” financial recovery
Stuart Hoffman, senior financial advisor to the PNC Money Services Provider Group, who also spoke on the occasion, predicts a very gradual financial recovery for the country as a whole.
The US financial system lost 22 million jobs and one in seven people became unemployed in March and April. Some half of those jobs have returned.
But like in Arizona, the restoration will depend on federal help and what happens with the vaccine, Hoffman said.
“I would like to stress that the strength and sustainability of any economic recovery depends on the trajectory of the pandemic, which is worsening greatly, and the arrival of a vaccine, and of course vaccinations, on the will of consumers. to resume their normal activities and a further federal stimulus, which we believe is absolutely necessary, ”he said.
Regarding JPMorgan chase away Heart of financial outlook
Established in 1986, the Financial Outlook Heart informs people and businesses about the likely future of business and financial opportunities, thereby improving decision-making. Led by Lee McPheters, current choices include:
• Western Blue Chip Financial Forecast, offering consensus projections from leading economists on circumstances in the twelve Western states
• Larger Phoenix Blue Chip, offering consensus projections from leading economists on circumstances in the Phoenix metropolitan space
• Covid-19 and the Economic System Dashboard for Arizona and Maricopa County.
This story was originally printed at Chamber Enterprise Information.