Jessica Cisneros saw her fundraising increase after the raid on Henry Cuellar’s house

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Democratic congressional candidate Jessica Cisneros has enjoyed a fundraising boost following an FBI raid on the Laredo home and office of her chief opponent, U.S. Representative Henry Cuellar.

In the first three months of the year, Cisneros harvested almost three times as much as Cuellar. Most of these fundraisers took place after the January 19 raid. The raid also sent the Democratic primary race in the 28th congressional district on a completely different trajectory from the year before: Cuellar’s fundraising slumped while Cisneros’s soared.

Cuellar lost 660 votes to avoid a runoff in the March primary election. He and Cisneros will face off in a second round on May 24.

“The raid didn’t hurt Cuellar as much as I would have thought, but it surely cost him the support he might have otherwise had,” said Matt Angle, a longtime Texas Democratic strategist. “Cuellar spent weeks after the raid writhing in the wind over speculation that he would be charged. I guess some cold-footed people stood up to him.

The Justice Department has yet to explain why the raid on its office took place. Cuellar’s attorney recently told the Texas Tribune that the congressman was not under investigation.

On the face of it, Cisneros’ late fundraising surge mirrors the dynamics of when she first ran against Cuellar in 2020: Cuellar entered this election year with a massive money advantage liquid, with Cisneros catching up as the primary entered the national attention of the political donor class. Cisneros then raised about $1 million in the first quarter, about $400,000 more than Cuellar.

This time around, Cisneros raised about $2.4 million in the first quarter, compared to $900,000 for Cuellar.

Fundraising data from the weeks after the January raid and before Election Day paints an even more dramatic picture.

In that same time window in 2020, Cisneros raised around $350,000 and Cuellar $245,000; in other words, Cuellar raised around 70% of Cisneros’ loot. Two years later, Cisneros has raised about $700,000 and Cuellar $146,000 – about $100,000 less than he raised two years prior and barely 20% of what Cisneros raised during the same period.

It’s always remarkable when a challenger elevates an incumbent, but it’s exceptional on this scale.

At the beginning of January, Cisneros’ fundraising was quite low. She raised just under $30,000 on good days, rarely exceeding $10,000 on most days.

Campaign donations skyrocketed after the raid on Cuellar’s office, reaching nearly $100,000 on January 23. Money poured in from population centers in the 28th District — San Antonio and Laredo — but also from individual donors across the country from states like Idaho, Delaware, New York and California.

“Cisneros’ bump in campaign finance comes as no surprise,” said Rafael Gutierrez Nieto, a longtime Cuellar ally in Laredo. “His base saw the opportunity to pounce on Cuellar and they did just that.”

“It’s also not surprising that the raid had a bigger impact on his fundraising than on the ballot box,” he added, saying redistricting changes in the district had a bigger impact. on the fortunes of the candidates.

Other Texas Democrats disagree with that notion, pointing to growing momentum in the latter part of the campaign, which included backing fundraising juggernauts like U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. and US Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

“I think the momentum of Jessica’s giving matches the momentum of people’s belief that she can win,” said former senator Wendy Davis, who is a Cisneros donor.

Royce Brooks, a non-aligned Democratic agent, agreed. She suggested that after Cisneros nearly pushed Cuellar into a runoff in 2020, the money boost could be “more a reflection of Cuellar’s perceived overall vulnerability.”

Cisneros’ latest campaign finance report shows she continued to enjoy support from labor unions, environmental organizations, the Latino Victory Fund and Ocasio-Cortez’s leadership PAC.

None of this was good for Cuellar. This unexpected windfall meant that Cisneros had the resources to expand its television and digital advertising, outreach efforts and direct mail solicitations.

But donors have not abandoned Cuellar. He is a prolific fundraiser in his own right who benefits from his position on the House Appropriations Committee.

Despite fundraising setbacks, Cuellar continued to find financial allies out of state, many of them from Washington, DC. His latest campaign finance reports show that Cuellar has maintained support from the business community, with the support of PACs from companies in the oil and gas industry. , agriculture and financial services.

Additionally, Democratic leaders have continued to donate to Cuellar from their own campaign and PAC funds, including the fourth House Democrat, U.S. Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, Speaker of the House Ways and Means Richard Neal and US Senator Joe Manchin, a like-minded person on energy issues.

Former members of Congress have also donated to Cuellar, both their personal checkbooks and their own former PACs. Former U.S. Representative Chet Edwards, a Waco-area Democrat, and three retired Texas Republicans — former U.S. Representatives Jack Fields Jr., Ted Poe and Lamar Smith — donated to Cuellar.

Cuellar and Cisneros both reported strong cash in hand as of March 31. Cuellar had around $1.4 million to spend and Cisneros just over $1 million.

“They both have enough to give a deciding vote, so I don’t think the race is about the money,” Angle said. “The primary race will determine who can muster their vote in what is likely to be a low-turnout runoff.”

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